Diberdayakan oleh Blogger.

Popular Posts Today

Rouble Woes: Six Stages Of A Currency Crisis

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 16 Desember 2014 | 23.21

If you've never witnessed a currency crisis, here's how they usually go, in six simple steps:

1. Your currency gradually creeps downwards. This can happen over a matter of months as your current account deficit - the country's ledger with the rest of the world - deteriorates.

2. Suddenly, overnight, investors panic. Their withdrawals of money from your country, until now a steady stream, become a flood.

3. You raise interest rates - one point, two points, and then more.

4. But rather than being reassured, investors sense panic. The capital outflows accelerate and your currency collapse continues.

5. Eventually, there is nothing for it. You yank up interest rates to eye-watering levels in the full knowledge that your country will be plunged into recession; that unemployment will skyrocket. You dig into your international reserves.

6. Finally, when those reserves run out, you call on your neighbours or the International Monetary Fund for a bailout.

That's the pattern that has repeated itself on countless occasions in economic history, whether in Britain in 1992, in Asia in the late 1990s or in much of the Western world in the 1930s.

But, if you'd rather see a currency crisis in the flesh, look no further than Russia.

The country is sitting at stage four in this depressing sequence.

It is reliant on oil for around two thirds of its exports, so the recent fall in crude prices has been disastrous for an economy still reeling from the sanctions associated with its Crimea exploits around Ukraine.

On Monday, the rouble collapsed by a tenth. Then, in the middle of the night (1am, to be precise), the central bank raised interest rates from 10.5% to 17% (they were below 6% at the start of the year).

It was the biggest rate hike since 1998 (when rates were lifted to 150%) and it briefly stemmed the outflows.

But as the day went on the currency started to fall again, from 60 to the dollar to 70 to the dollar and, briefly, to almost 80 to the dollar.

It steadied up around lunchtime, though where it ends up the day is, frankly, anyone's guess.

That Russia is in big economic trouble is hardly news. It has been struggling for some months.

But as stage two above underlines, the shift from chronic underperformance to sudden crisis is usually very sudden and unpredictable. We are now past that.

Whether Russia can arrest things now or will succumb to stages five and six remains to be seen.

The country has sizeable foreign reserves thanks to many years of high oil prices.

It has shown repeatedly (think the 1990s, think Stalingrad and Leningrad) that its people can withstand deep economic hardship. But such reserves of money and fortitude can only last so long.

If oil prices remain low and investors continue to flee the country, it is not inconceivable that it eventually calls on its allies for some sort of financial assistance.

The big question then is whether the IMF (largely controlled by the US) would actually help out.

After all, it generally prefers not to lend to countries which are under international sanctions.

Winters are always hard in Russia. This year's will be one of the hardest yet.


23.21 | 0 komentar | Read More

Rouble 'Critical' After Hitting All-Time Low

The deputy chairman of Russia's central bank has conceded the rouble is in deep trouble but says it will take action to remedy the problem soon.

"The situation is critical. We could not imagine this in our worst nightmare a year ago," Sergei Shvetsov was quoted by the Russian news agency Interfax as saying.

He said the shock overnight hike in its key interest rate from 10.5% to 17% "will be followed by other measures to stabilise the situation".

Despite the increase the rouble continued to fall sharply throughout the day, hitting the 80 to the dollar mark and decreasing in value by 20% in a matter of hours.

"Trust me, the choice the central bank's board of directors made was one between bad and much, much worse," Mr Shvetsov added.

"In the coming days, the situation will be comparable with the toughest period of 2008. I think that the experience we accumulated over the past crises will help us find the right solution and survive this situation. I very much hope so."

The Bank of Russia's shock decision to up its core rate was a response to the rouble's value sinking by almost 50% over the course of the year - hit by Western sanctions imposed over the Ukraine conflict and plummeting oil prices.

It was also intended to settle nerves back home as fears grow that the extent of Russia's economic problems - largely unreported by state media - could spark panic among consumers as price rises become unmanageable.

By raising interest rates, the bank also hoped investors would find it more financially appealing to keep their money in Russia, whose economy relies heavily on oil revenues.

Central bank chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina said earlier the move should stem inflation, although she admitted it will take the rouble "some time" to find its correct value.

Russian stocks fell slightly on Tuesday morning with the MICEX benchmark 1.5% lower, reflecting the additional pressure on businesses.

Falls of more than 50% in world oil prices are tipped to plunge Russia into recession next year.

On Tuesday the value of Brent crude slipped to new five-year low, falling below $60-per-barrel for the first time since July 2009.

The Bank Of Russia had raised the rate from 5.5% earlier this year to 10.5% just last Thursday.

It said then that it expected inflation to run at 10% this year and climb higher in the first quarter of 2015.

But the rouble has plunged further against the dollar this week, to 65 on Monday and then 80 on Tuesday, after dropping from 55 roubles last week.

Alexei Kudrin, Russia's finance minister from 2000-2011, said on Twitter: "The fall of the rouble is not just a reaction to low oil prices and the sanctions but also (a show of) distrust to economic policies of the government."

He called on Russian president Vladimir Putin to take appropriate measures, although he did not specify what these should be.

Moscow's involvement in Ukraine has led to the US and the European Union imposing a range of sanctions which have added to Russia's economic woes.

These have included blocking Western financial markets to key Russian companies and limiting imports of some technologies.

Further sanctions are likely after the US Congress passed legislation on Monday that could see Washington providing weapons and other assistance to Ukraine. 


23.21 | 0 komentar | Read More

G4S Guards Cleared Over Deportee Death

Three security guards have been cleared of manslaughter over the death of a deportee on a plane at Heathrow airport.

The former G4S custody officers, Terrence Hughes, Colin Kaler and Stuart Tribelnig, were on trial over the death of Angolan man Jimmy Mubenga.

They were accused of forcing Mr Mubenga's head down and restricting his breathing for 36 minutes as the flight prepared for take off.

By the time crew raised the alarm on 12 October 2010 Mr Mubenga had gone into cardiac arrest. He died later in hospital.

Some passengers said they had heard him crying out for air but the guards denied the claims.

The three men were in tears as the not guilty verdict was read out at the Old Bailey.

Mr Mubenga, who had been in the UK since 1994, was in the process of applying for permission to stay permanently when it was decided he should be deported after serving two years in jail for assault.

Prosecutors had claimed Mr Mubenga was already handcuffed behind his back and wearing his seatbelt after becoming agitated on the plane.

A section of the Boeing 777 with three rows of seats was reconstructed in court to help jurors understand the case.

Jurors were also invited to wear the handcuffs to experience how Mr Mubenga might have felt.

One witness, Nicholas Herbig, from New Mexico, said the deportee had clearly been in distress and was "very loud".

He told the court: "He was saying 'All you people are watching them kill me. I can't breathe. They are going to kill me'."

But all three men denied doing anything wrong and said they had not used the "carpet karaoke" restraint.

The technique involves pushing a seated person's head forward, compressing their diaphragm to subdue them.

"He was never forced down with his head forced beneath his knees," said Terrence Hughes, who comes from Portsmouth.

Stuart Tribelnig, from Horley in Surrey, said he had not heard Mr Mubenga "say anything about air".

An inquest last year ruled that the 43-year-old was unlawfully killed and led to the CPS reconsidering manslaughter charges.

The jury in the criminal case was not told of the inquest verdict for legal reasons, or that two of the defendants - Hughes and Tribelnig - had "very racially offensive material" on their phones.

No charges were brought against security giant G4S after prosecutors decided there was not enough evidence.

A statement for the three men said: "They bitterly regret the death of Mr Mubenga but have always said they were trying to do a very difficult job in difficult circumstances to the best of their ability.

"They are grateful to the judge and jury for the care they have taken resolving these sad events."


23.21 | 0 komentar | Read More

Pakistan Militants Kill 141 In School Massacre

Pakistan Militants Kill 141 In School Massacre

We use cookies to give you the best experience. If you do nothing we'll assume that it's ok.

Taliban gunmen have killed 141 people, including at least 132 children, in a school attack in Peshawar, Pakistan.

Nine men stormed the army-run school while around 500 children and teachers were believed to be inside, with many students taking exams at the time.

Most of the victims of the country's deadliest terror attack were killed in the first few hours as the gunman fired bullets indiscriminately at pupils and teachers.

A local hospital said the dead - and the more than 120 who were injured - were aged from 10 to 20 years old.

"One of my teachers was crying, she was shot in the hand and she was crying in pain," Shahrukh Khan, 15, who was shot in both legs, said.

1/22

  1. Gallery: Taliban In Deadly School Raid

    Pakistani men help an injured student to a hospital following an attack by Taliban gunmen on a school in Peshawar

Rescue workers and family members carry the coffin of a student, who was killed during the attack

]]>

Ambulances, carrying schoolchildren, make their way from the school

]]>
]]>

Students have told of their terror as the school was stormed

]]>
Pakistan Militants Kill 141 In School Massacre

We use cookies to give you the best experience. If you do nothing we'll assume that it's ok.

Taliban gunmen have killed 141 people, including at least 132 children, in a school attack in Peshawar, Pakistan.

Nine men stormed the army-run school while around 500 children and teachers were believed to be inside, with many students taking exams at the time.

Most of the victims of the country's deadliest terror attack were killed in the first few hours as the gunman fired bullets indiscriminately at pupils and teachers.

A local hospital said the dead - and the more than 120 who were injured - were aged from 10 to 20 years old.

"One of my teachers was crying, she was shot in the hand and she was crying in pain," Shahrukh Khan, 15, who was shot in both legs, said.

1/22

  1. Gallery: Taliban In Deadly School Raid

    Pakistani men help an injured student to a hospital following an attack by Taliban gunmen on a school in Peshawar

Rescue workers and family members carry the coffin of a student, who was killed during the attack

]]>

Ambulances, carrying schoolchildren, make their way from the school

]]>

]]>

Students have told of their terror as the school was stormed

]]>

23.21 | 0 komentar | Read More

Sydney Siege Victim 'Shielded Pregnant Friend'

A female barrister who died in the Sydney siege has been hailed a hero amid reports she was killed shielding her pregnant friend from gunfire.

Katrina Dawson died along with cafe manager Tori Johnson, who was praised for trying to grab the gun off hostage-taker Man Haron Monis at the end of the 16-hour siege.

Tributes were paid to the victims at a memorial service, as questions were raised over why the self-styled sheikh had been granted bail after a string of alleged sex attacks and involvement in a murder.

As Sydney struggled to come to terms with the shock of the siege, a video also emerged showing some of the hostages inside the cafe, filmed by their captor.

In the video, uploaded by the gunman, three hostages are pictured describing demands made by the gunman - including that he be brought an Islamic State flag.

Television news footage also emerged of the moment when a TV reporter broke down in tears live on air as she read out the name of Ms Dawson - realising that she knew her.

Huge piles of flowers were laid outside the Lindt café in Sydney's financial district, as more details about the victims and the gunman began to emerge.

Local resident Chloe Jean Sweetman told Sky News: "There's a lot of sadness, and a bit of a dull energy around today.

"There's been a lot of coming together of religions, and working towards the greater goal of being one in the situation."

At a prayer service in St Mary's Cathedral about 500 metres from the cafe, Archbishop Anthony Fisher spoke of how the "heart of our city is broken by the deaths of two innocents".

"Reports have emerged this morning of the heroism of the male victim of this siege," Archbishop Fisher said.

"Apparently seeing an opportunity Tori Johnson grabbed the gun - tragically it went off killing him.

"But it triggered the response of the police and eventual freedom for most of the hostages.

"Reports have also emerged that Katrina Dawson was shielding her pregnant friend from gunfire. These heroes were willing to lay down their lives so others might live."

Deputy Police Commissioner Catherine Burn could not confirm reports of Mr Johnson's tussle with the gunman, adding that investigators were still compiling the chain of events that led to the siege ending.

But the police chief admitted that Monis, 50, had a "serious history of criminal offences and a history of violence".

"This was a man that we do believe had some extremist views and we also believe that he was unstable," she added.

Questions have been raised as to why Monis was on bail at all - after it emerged he was accused of a string of sex attacks and implicated in a murder.

He was also convicted of sending offensive letters to the grieving relatives of soldiers killed in Iraq.

NSW Premier Mike Baird told a press conference this morning that he was "outraged" that Monis was out on the streets.

His comments were further echoed by Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott.

Speaking at the same conference, Mr Abbott said he had asked himself "how can someone who has had such long and dangerous history not be on the appropriate watch-lists?"

He added: "And how can someone like that be entirely large in the community? These are questions we need to look at clearly, calmly and methodically to learn the right lessons."

As well as Ms Dawson and Mr Johnson, three female hostages were also shot in the attack and are being treated in hospital. They are in a stable condition.

A police officer who was shot in the face during the shoot-out had been released from hospital.

"I spoke to the police officer as he was going home. His only words to me were 'I'll be back at work tomorrow'," Ms Burn said.

Ms Dawson was having a cup of coffee with a colleague at the café when the gunman rounded up 17 hostages yesterday morning.

A statement from the New South Wales Bar Association said: "Katrina was one of our best and brightest barristers who will be greatly missed by her colleagues and friends at the NSW Bar.

"She was a devoted mother of three children, and a valued member of her floor and of our bar community."

Mr Johnson's parents, in a statement shared via Sydney broadcast journalist Ben Fordham, praised their "beautiful boy" and called for everyone to "pray for peace on Earth".

"We are so proud of our beautiful boy Tori, gone from this earth but forever in our memories as the most amazing life partner, son and brother we could ever wish for," the statement said.

Flags were lowered to half-staff on the landmark Harbour Bridge as Australians awakened to the surreal conclusion of the crisis.

The siege ended in dramatic scenes, as a group of panicked hostages ran from the building into the arms of waiting police in the early hours of Tuesday morning local time.

Specialist police then swooped on the gunman, who was armed with a pump-action shotgun.

A series of loud explosions were heard at the scene before glass shattered onto the pavement from a nearby window.

Monis was shot dead when specialist officers threw flash grenades into the building in the Martin Place premises at around 2.10am local time.

Lord Mayor of Sydney Clover Moore told Sky News the police acted "incredibly bravely" and said the situation had been managed "calmly and professionally".


23.21 | 0 komentar | Read More

Pakistan Taliban's Terror Grip On Population

Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif has called the Taliban's massacre at a school in Peshawar a "national tragedy".

The province has been the target of frequent militant attacks in the past.

The Pakistani Taliban said the attack on the military-run school was "revenge" for a widespread military operation in the North Waziristan tribal area earlier this year.

The group, called Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), was formed in 2007, in the aftermath of the siege of the Red Mosque in Islamabad.

The group's first leader Baitullah Mehsud was killed in a US missile attack in August 2009.

TTP is an umbrella for militant groups, united in fighting the Pakistani military.

It aims to impose a strict interpretation of the Koran throughout the country.

Here are just some of the attacks they have been linked to in recent years:

:: Benazir Bhutto Assassination 2007

Pakistan's government accused TTP of involvement in the assassination of the former prime minister in December 2007, although the group denies it.

:: Marriott Hotel Bombing 2008

A Taliban-linked group claimed responsibility for the September 2008 truck bomb attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, which killed 53 people.

:: Times Square Plot 2010

Baitullah Mehsud was succeeded by Hakimullah Mehsud, who pledged to use suicide bombers in the US. He was behind the failed truck bomb attack in New York's Times Square in May 2010.

The US Department of State formally declared the group a terrorist organisation in September 2010, with the UK and Canada following suit in 2011.

:: Malala Yousafzai Shooting 2012

In October 2012 the Taliban shot the schoolgirl in the head outside her school in Swat Valley for daring to speak about girls' rights.

She survived, and went on the win the Nobel Peace Prize.

:: Karachi Airport Attack 2014

After peace talks with the Pakistan government in June 2014 failed, the Taliban attacked Karachi Airport, killing 26 people.

A week later the Pakistan military began a major military offensive, Operation Zarb e Azb in the Waziristan region, which has seen hundreds of militants killed.


23.21 | 0 komentar | Read More

Iran Tried To Extradite Cafe Gunman Over Fraud

Police in Iran say Sydney cafe gunman Man Horan Monis was wanted in his home country over a fraud committed almost 20 years ago.

Three people died as the 16-hour siege came to a dramatic end just after 2am local time when armed police stormed the building.

One was the 50-year-old "lone gunman" who Iranian police say fled to Malaysia after committing fraud while working as the manager of a travel agency in 1996.

Following legal proceedings in 2000, Iran's judiciary reportedly informed Interpol about his crime and demanded his extradition from Australia.

Australia allegedly refused to do so, saying it did not have a criminal extradition agreement with Iran.

Shortly after laying flowers near the scene, prime minister Tony Abbott labelled radical group Islamic State a "death cult" and said there were questions to be answered over why Monis had been freed on bail.

He confirmed that he was not on a terrorism watch list.

"This has been an absolutely appalling and ugly incident - that's the only way to describe it. Our hearts go out to the families of Katrina Dawson and Tori Johnson. These were decent ordinary people who were going about their ordinary lives.

"Decent, innocent people who were caught up in the sick fantasy of a deeply disturbed individual."

He added Monis "certainly had been well-known to the Australian Federal Police... but I don't believe that he was on a terror watch list at this time."

A year before the cafe siege Monis was released on bail after being accused of involvement in his wife's murder, adding to a string of sex charges against him.

Police deputy commissioner Catherine Burn commented: "He was on bail and in terms of that matter, his movements will form part of the critical investigation.

"He has clearly made some statements. This is a man who had a serious history of offences and a history of violence. A man we do believe had some extremist views and we also believe he was unstable.

"We will clearly have a look at all the things we can find out about him so we can determine what might have triggered anything."

She refused to speculate on the actions of the cafe manager, when asked if he had acted heroically.

"I'm not going to talk about individual actions at all. This will all come out in time but can I just say every single one of the hostages, every single one of those victims was courageous," she added.

Earlier, police commissioner Andrew Scipione told reporters that 17 hostages had been accounted for in total, including five who escaped early in the attack.

He added that the Lindt cafe had been secured and no explosive devices found.

Mr Scipione said the incident was "isolated" and urged people not to "speculate" about what had happened, adding police believed more lives could have been lost had they not taken action.

"Events that were unfolding inside the premises led them to the belief that now was the time to actually deploy, and they did," he said.

"I understand there were a number of gunshots that were heard, which caused officers to move towards an emergency action plan."


23.21 | 0 komentar | Read More

Inflation At 12-Year Low As Key Prices Fall

Plunging fuel and food costs left the core measure of inflation at a 12-year low last month, official figures have shown.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) calculated the consumer prices index (CPI) at an annual rate of 1% in November - showing costs were rising at a weaker pace than wages overall as the Christmas shopping season got underway.

The ONS credited a 5.9% fall in fuel prices compared to November 2013 and a 1.7% drop in food costs over the same period as supermarkets battled for market share amid the continuing price war.

In addition to the lower grocery costs, it has been supermarkets which have led the way in cuts to fuel costs, with both unleaded and diesel falling by 3p-per-litre in November alone as the chains use cheaper fuel prices to bolster their wider offering.

Separate industry figures, released by Kantar WorldPanel, suggested cheaper groceries had meant savings for shoppers of £182m over the past 12 weeks.

November's inflation figure marked a surprise easing in the rate, given that economists were expecting a flat picture after CPI was measured at 1.3% in October.

But the strength of sterling in recent months, combined with dramatic declines in oil prices, have also helped push down inflation by cutting import costs.

The ONS said computer game costs contributed to the decline in the inflation rate, too.

It means Bank of England governor Mark Carney only just avoids having to write to the Chancellor George Osborne to explain why inflation is more than 1% off the bank's 2% target.

Mr Carney has already acknowledged that he is likely to have to write to Mr Osborne in the coming months as oil costs continue to decline.

CPI has not been as low since September 2002 and was last lower in June 2002.

The fall in inflation adds to hopes of a rise in real-terms wages which have lagged behind the increasing cost of living for six years.

Additional figures from the ONS, due on Wednesday, are tipped to show wages growing at an annual rate of 1.5% - suggesting that the squeeze on earnings is easing in the short term.


23.21 | 0 komentar | Read More

Chris Denning Jailed For Abusing 24 Boys

Former BBC Radio 1 DJ Chris Denning has been jailed for 13 years for sexually abusing 24 boys as young as 10.

Around a dozen of the 73-year-old's victims sat at the back of the court as he was sentenced for a string of offences - including one assault allegedly carried out at Jimmy Savile's house.

Denning, one of Radio 1's founding presenters, groomed young boys by taking them to watch Top of the Pops recordings and introducing them to stars including Savile.

Judge Alistair McCreath told London's Southwark Crown Court the abuse was "inappropriate and depraved".

He added: "It is not to be forgotten that all of this suffering was inflicted by you without thought for anything other than your own selfish pleasure."

More follows...


23.21 | 0 komentar | Read More

Murder Victim Named After Teen Boys Arrested

A man murdered following a "verbal altercation" with a group of youths outside his home has been named as Christopher John Barry.

Scotland Yard say the 53-year-old was also known as Jack.

The victim was stabbed at his home in Edmonton, north London, on Sunday evening after he was said to have been involved in dispute with a group trying to get into a party at another address in the block of flats.

Four boys - three aged 14 and one 13-year-old - arrested on suspicion of murder have been released on bail.

They must return to an east London police station on a date in late January pending further inquiries, according to police.

A second 13-year-old boy, also held on on suspicion of murder, remains in custody.

A post-mortem on Monday found the cause of death was a stab wound to the chest.

Mr Barry is thought to have become involved in an argument with a group of boys as he attempted to get into the flats in The Broadway.

He was allegedly followed into the building by two of the boys and stabbed.

Detective Chief Inspector Neale Baldock, of the Homicide and Major Crime Command, who is heading the investigation, said: "Our initial inquiries have established that there was a supervised party taking place at another address within the block and the group of males were trying to gain access to this.

"The victim and this group were not known to each other - what started as a minor verbal altercation has escalated into a shocking act of violence."


23.21 | 0 komentar | Read More
techieblogger.com Techie Blogger Techie Blogger